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This is http://www.essayz.com/a9401201.htm Previous-Essay <== This-Essay ==> Following-Essay Click HERE on this line to find essays via Your-Key-Words. {Most frequent wordstarts of each essay will be put here.} ========================================================== %REFLEXIVE PROCESS PREDICT EXPECT ACCURATE 940120 process, than will small variations in the initial conditions of an objective process. The elements of an objective process interact with themselves and each other in simpler ways than the elements of reflexive processes interact with themselves and each other. The relative simplicity of the interactions of elements of objective processes makes the course of events in objective processes relatively predictable. Chaos theory was developed by physicists who had been in the habit of assuming that in principle they would be able to develop procedures by which to predict the course of the weather for extended periods of time into the future. They did not anticipate any fundamental reason which would place a limit upon their ability to develop procedures by which to make very long range and very accurate weather predictions. Their behaviors were in large part determined by their self conceptions of what was humanly possible; i.e., by reflexive interactions of their self images of themselves. Eventually physicists became aware that among large collections of interacting objects the level of complexity of impersonal interactions is so great that it is impossible within a system of interacting elements for some of the elements (people) to isolate themselves from the system well enough to measure, understand and carry out the computations by which to predict objectively and without bias the future course of events of those elements from which they have separated themselves. In the case of reflexive systems the degree of separation required to insure that the system whose behavior is to be predicted is "simple" --- is so great that it results in a high level of ignorance about the "simple" process and makes reliable predictions impossible. The degree of participation which is required within any complex system whose behavior is to be predicted is so great, as to make the persons seeking to make reliable predictions be essential elements of the system which they are seeking to analyze through controlled experimentation. Complete analysis of a reflexive system involves so much self reflection and self manipulation in the process of the analysis --- as to engender incomprehensibly complex the possibilities in a multiplicity of non- linear feed-back-loops. Tiny changes in initial conditions of the self-analyzing system will lead to changes in later conditions which are impossible to anticipate through self analysis, manipulation, measurement, computations and predictions of limited portions of the whole system. Dishonesty about reflexive processes is not a firm foundation upon which to base a program of predicting the future! Any system of objects which is to be completely understood must include the annalists, and thus must be a reflexive system; even if the annalists are engaged in collusive games of mutual self deception in the conviction that such is not the case. (c) 2005 by Paul A. Smith in (On Being Yourself, Whole and Healthy) ==========================================================