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This web page Describes the Processes-of-Exponential-Growth in Rates-of-Depletion of: 1. Space-Ship-Earth's Readily-Available Large-But-Finite Terrestrial-Supplies of Each-Material-Form of PURE Fossil-Fuel; e.g., Oil, Natural-Gas Coal, Shale-Oil, Tar-Sands, Peat; Uranium-235, Uranium-238, Thorium, etc. 2. Space-Ship-Earth's Readily-Available Large-But-Finite Terrestrial-Supplies of each Material- Mineral containing Finite-Supplies of each Pure-Element such as: Gold, Platinum, Silver, Copper, Iron, Nickel, Lead, Lithium, etc. for all elements - - - Which-Play-Key-Roles in modern "advanced" Life-Styles of Technically-Sophisticated "Cultures" and "Life-Styles" - - - both Integrative and Destructive. 3. Space-Ship-Earth's Readily-Available Large-But-Finite Terrestrial-Supplies of PURE-WATER; e.g.: Ocean-Lake-River-Ground-Water, Aquifer-Water, Glacier-Ice, Polar-Ice, etc. 4. Space-Ship-Earth's Readily-Available Large-But-Finite Terrestrial-Supplies of PURE: Humus, Soils, Organic-Substances, Species, DNAs, etc. - - - within Live-and-Decaying: Plants, Animals, Tissues, Single- Cell-Creatures, Molds, Prions, Viruses, etc. To-Survive with Personal-and-Communal-Integrities the vast majority of us and The-US must all learn to acknowledge THAT: God's Astronomically-Tiny Space-Ship-Earth is ESSENTIALLY-ISOLATED, as regards Coveted-Terrestrial- Material-Resources - - - because all Possible-Inter-Planetary and Inter-Stellar Space-Travel TECHNOLOGIES will be Net-Consumers of Coveted-Terrestrial-Material-Resources. Click NEXT on the following link: Information-Relevant to the Previous-Troubling-Statement. The chart below will be helpful to many people who Want-to-Be Thoughtfully-Informed about how all Limited- Material-Resources and Limited-Opportunities-for-Profitable-Investments - - - are "Consumed" and/or "Claimed" through activities whose Initial-Rates-of-Growth AND Concluding-Rates-of-Decline are Exponential-In- Character; Initially-Positive-in-Growth and Finally-Negative-in-Decline. Time increases from left to right in the chart below. Consumption rises to 999 at the top and drops back down when half of the available supply has been consumed and it gets harder and harder to get larger amounts each next year. Initially consumption doubles every 12.4 years which is the same as increasing by 5.65% each year. The plotted amounts of consumption during each 12.4 years are: 1, 2, 4, 8, 16, 32, 64, 128, 256, 512 and peaking at 999 ARBITRARY units of Oil. Then as exhaustion approaches consumption drops to: 512, 256, 128, 64, 31, 16, 8, 4, 2, 1, 1/2, 1/4, 1/8, 1/16 ===> GONE! The peak-consumption-rate is about 100 Million Barrels/Day. This over-simplified-model portrays the shift as occurring instantly when half of the Global-Supply has been consumed/claimed. In reality the transition follows a more smooth but still bumpy pattern which can be math- matical described according to an algebraic formula which is based upon solving a differential equation which says that the rate of use is likely to depend on the product of how much Oil Has-Been-Consumed and How-Much-Oil remains available to be consumed. For a more mathmatical analysis GO-TO www.hubertpeak.com/Hubbert/ or search the world-wide-web for words such as: "peak oil consumption exhaustion differential equation of M. King Hubbert's mathmatical model" of the pattern in our exhausting Astronomically-Tiny Space-Ship-Earth's Total-Oil-Supply. Arbitrary-Units-of-Consumption have been used below to help dramatize exponential growth with familiar multiples of TWO. 1880 <===== Year of the Start of OIL Era <=== 1979 2004 2029 The Ending of the OIL Era = = = = = => <=== The PAST ====> Period of Growing-Consumption Peak-Consumption ====> Period of Declining-Consumption FUTURE ===> ====> ERA OF EXPONENTIAL-GROWTH IN-OIL-CONSUMPTION! ? ERA OF EXPONENTIAL-DECAY IN-OIL-CONSUMPTION! ====> Imagine diagonal straight lines running between (999) middles of each "( )" in a diagonal set of "( )". | R Note doubling in diagonal numbers up each side. | A (512) | (512) T | Early Rates-of-consumption E | DOUBLE every 12.4 years at 5.65%/year. Areas below such Diagonal Straight-Lines (256) | (256) O "suggest" amounts of oil, NOT-proportionally | | | On chart 999 ~~> 100 Million Barrels F to areas on-this-graph, however. | | | of oil consumed PER- Vertical-Lines separate Total-Oil, (128) | | | (128) DAY at peak-rate. C Into Quarters of the Total-Oil. | | | 999 ~~> 35,600 Million O | | | Barrels Of Oil/YEAR => N ( 64) | | | ( 64) A CUBE WITH 3,300 OIL S | | | Barrels on-each-edge U | | | Consumed-Each-YEAR! M ( 32) | | | ( 32) P | | | T | | | After the peak: I ( 16) 1/4 OF OIL | 1/4 OF OIL|1/4 OF OIL | 1/4 OIL ( 16) USE DECAYS about O <-------------------->|<--------->|<----------|<-----------------> EXPONENTIALLY! N Left of Vertical Line | Between | Between | Right of Vertical Line BE READY! ( 8 ) | Lines | Lines | ( 8 ) HOW? | | | WHEN? | | | WHERE? ( 4 ) | | | ( 4 ) Earth! | | | | | | ( 2 ) | | | ( 2 ) | | | | | | ( 1 ) | | | ( 1 ) | 25 years | 25 years | 25 years | 25 years | 25 years | 25 years | 25 years | 25 years | 25 years | 25 years | 1880 1905 1930 1955 1979 2004 2029 2054 2079 2119 2119 Fraction of oil consumed ===> 1/64 1/32 1/16 1/8 1/4 1/2 3/4 7/8 15/16 31/32 63/64 <== Oil Fraction Consumed 1880 <===== Year of the Start of OIL Era <=== 1979 2004 2029 The Ending of the OIL Era = = = = = =>What WILL-BE the inexhaustible forms of energy which we can rely upon - - - - when ALL Fossil-Fuels have been CONSUMED?
This is web page: www.essayz.com/updown.htm
www.hubertpeak.com/Hubbert/ About M. King Hubbert and his work.
Go-To www.essayz.com/sustain.htm What can we DO to Promote-and-Facilitate SUSTAINABILITY?
www.ucsusa.org/ A Source-of-Reliable-Scientific Information